A camel, it is said, is a horse designed by a committee. This is
unfair to camels. They may be ugly and truculent. But they are
marvellously adapted to their harsh environment. The same, alas, is
rarely true of the products of committees.
Last week's report from the World Commission on the Social Dimension
of Globalisation, sponsored by the International Labour Organisation, is
no exception*. The report is long on pious aspirations and short on
rigorous analysis. Above all, it suffers from
"right-thinking", or rather "left-thinking", evasion
of some of the dilemmas the world confronts.
For all its limitations, the reader should welcome at least four
points: the age of globalisation has seen important economic advances
for important poor countries; the trade policies of the rich countries
are indefensible; the financial liberalisation adopted by many
developing countries has frequently had damaging consequences; and,
finally, a necessary condition for alleviation of extreme poverty is
greater international assistance targeted on the poorest countries.
In 16 developing countries, containing 45 per cent of the world's
population, gross domestic product per head rose by more than 3 per cent
a year between 1985 and 2001 (see chart). Among these are the two Asian
giants, China and India. This is cheering. Yet in 23 countries,
containing 5 per cent of the world's population, GDP per head declined.
In another 14, containing just under 8 per cent of the world's
population, incomes per head rose by less than 1 per cent a year. In
all, some 750m people live in countries that are failing. Globalisation
has created opportunities. Many have benefited. But many also have not.
Again, the record on trade liberalisation by high-income countries in
areas of most interest to developing countries is appalling. The report
is commendably outspoken on this, given the participation of John
Sweeney, the American trade union leader. "Agricultural
protectionism," it argues, for example, "is a major obstacle
to the reduction of poverty."
On financial liberalisation, the report argues that the instability
of financial flows has damaged developing countries. For this reason,
they "should be permitted to adopt a more cautious and gradual
approach to capital account liberalisation". On this, the report is
pushing at an open door.
Last, the report is right to stress that official development
assistance is now little more than 0.2 per cent of the high-income
countries' GDP. The US is spending more on Iraq than all the high-income
countries are spending on all developing countries. This is
indefensible.
Nevertheless, this report also has noteworthy blemishes. These come
partly from its grudging acceptance of the role of market forces in
development and its unwillingness to confront the silliest critics of
globalisation head on. But they also come from its avoidance of painful
choices. Consider just three areas: democracy, sovereignty and labour
standards.
The report calls for "a democratic and effective state".
Most would agree. Yet democratisation has proved to be neither a
necessary nor a sufficient condition for economic development. The most
important and, over the past two decades, most successful developing
country is China. China's success is merely the most striking example of
a more general east Asian phenomenon: these countries' advance began not
under democracy but under authoritarian regimes.
Again, consider sovereignty. People's ability to engage in productive
economic activity depends, more than anything else, on the quality of
the state. Unfortunately, the countries that contain the world's poorest
people are, almost by definition, ill-governed. To this the report
responds by calling for "good national governance, built on a
democratic political system, respect for human rights and gender
equality, social equity and the rule of law". Yet what exactly is
one to do when these virtues of Scandinavian social democracy are
altogether lacking?
The world's 20 poorest countries are just about as poor today as they
were 40 years ago. That can be changed only if they start to function
quite differently from before, which will take a great deal of outside
help. But it will also require radical domestic transformation. If the
sovereignty of such dysfunctional states is protected, their peoples
will remain impoverished. If their people are to be helped, the
sovereignty of their states must be challenged. This is a dilemma, which
will not be solved by platitudes about good governance and respect for
human rights.
Now, look at labour standards. The report is, as would be expected of
a document from the ILO, exercised by the omnipresence, in developing
countries, of unregulated, informal labour markets. What is missing is
any recognition of how labour markets actually work in economies with
huge surpluses of unskilled labour.
A malign relationship exists between the relatively high standards,
and costs, in formal labour markets and the absence of such standards,
and the low costs, in informal ones. The formal sector's growth is
stunted by regulation, generating a larger surplus of workers for an
undercapitalised informal economy. The result is a dualistic economy,
with a small, relatively well-paid modern formal sector and a huge,
unregulated - indeed, impossible to regulate - informal sector.
These are far from trivial difficulties. It is irresponsible to
pretend that we can have every good we wish for, without ever having to
make painful choices among them. Democracy, sovereignty and higher
labour standards do not always, or even necessarily, go together with
faster economic growth and more widely spread prosperity. Sometimes, we
have to choose. Such a report needs to advise us how to do so.
If the world is to take as one of its priorities the promotion of
faster development in its poorest, most fragile and worst-governed
countries, such evasions will not do. Only honest governments with
sensible policies and decent institutions will do the job. But we must
also be willing to tolerate the operation of market forces, in rich and
poor countries, uncomfortable though they may be. The task we confront
is huge and some of the choices painful. Let us not pretend otherwise.
* A Fair Globalization: Creating opportunities for all, www.ilo.org